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LoA - About the Quest Cards

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dandyman
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Post time 2016-7-2 04:28:16 | Show all posts |Read mode
LoA - About the Quest Cards Reply:14| View:1543
We are led to believe that the cards at the end of a quest loop are randomly set.  What I'm about to present to you is NOT what they would like you to know because it contradicts that perception.  Although, I'll leave it up to you to decide for yourself if, in fact, what's presented does refute the idea of randomness.

Background:
When I first started playing LoA, approximately 6 weeks ago, I was fascinated by the great artwork and was focused on learning the gameplay which somewhat distracted me from the nuances of the mechanics behind the visual awesomeness.  It was later during the quests that I began to wonder about what was going on with the resulting quest card choices.  So I began a project to track them.  After a few iterations to get a model setup that would provide the data analysis that was needed, I set about following what was happening.  Now, after 1500+ loop completions, I have discovered a few enlightening things about the quest cards.

Definition of terms:
I used the following as coded references to the results of each card:
  L = Large Gold amount
  S = Small Gold amount (half the amount of the Large)
  T = Angel Tears
  C = Holy Crystals (no designation of which crystal because of insignificance to the study)

Only the main quests were used which excluded the Zodiac, Eternal Spire, etc.

Results:
The first discovery was that of the 24 combinations of the arrangement of the L, S, T, C values, only 10 ever appeared...less than 42% of the possible combinations.  Odd result as this would indicate a definitive lack of random order.  In addition, even amongst the 10 combinations that were used, the crystal only appeared in one position 4 times in over 1500 loops.  Again, that amounted to a .29% occurrance.  This percentage not only was the overall result.  It was also +/- on a daily basis which only confirmed the validity of the result due to being consistent with the overall result.  Daily results were added to the Overall after the day's quests were completed.

So now, on to the behavioral aspects of the combinations.  First of all, it needs to be understood what the value of each of the selections are.  The least value is the Small Gold amount followed by the Large Gold amount.  In the early quests, the Holy Crystal-1 is less value than the Angel Tears, however, in later quests when the crystal is Holy Crystal-3 or greater, the Angel Tears are less in value.  This raised the question as to why that might be so.  Well, gold is easy to get and is everywhere.  To get the Angel Tears or the Crystals, you either have to get them through quests, special events, or by buying them in the shops with diamonds...NOT gold.

Now, more on the behaviorals.  In observing the combinations after making a choice, it became somewhat suspicious that the values of the cards were NOT set before the choice was made.  Instead, the mouse click was the trigger to set the value.  I used all sorts of criteria to measure this, including long strings of choosing the same card position each time.  The crystal would not be one of the values of a chosen card.  So, a change of position should do the trick, right?  Wrong!  The crystal would move away from where the choice was made every time.  Bad luck you say?  The law of averages tells you that with 4 possible values, you should get a particular value around 25% of the time, however, a 0% hit rate is skewed and definitely NOT random.

My conclusions (you may form your own or do your own tracking to verify my experiences):
Bottom line...we are being deceived into presuming an implied random setting of the quest card values before we make our choices.  The high valued items are allowed to be a result very occasionally and far below the law of averages.

Final comments:
So when you get frustrated with your choices not getting you what you need or want in doing the loop quests, just remember...there are apparent factors working against you for the higher valued items to get you to buy them rather than earn them as you should be able to do.
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 dandyman Last edit in 2016-7-2 04:28:16

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syameimaru
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Post time 2016-7-2 05:51:31 | Show all posts
Didn't read but no the Loop Quests end cards are not random. I don't really know how it works but you only get the Crystals and Tears a couple times a day and the rest is Gold no matter how many times you try.

So yes, this is totally deceptive and I think it's the only proven case of such manipulation. As such I think it's the worst thing in LoA and wish it could be changed.

The good thing though is that you don't need these rewards at all. That might have been the case when the game launched but nowadays they barely make any difference.
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 syameimaru Last edit in 2016-7-2 05:51:31

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novaruby26
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Post time 2016-7-2 06:11:40 | Show all posts
Dude, first I'd like to know where you found the time to do this research...and second why? lol.  The sheer fact that your brain is bothered by this simple game feature BUT is also able to break the mess down in some sort of John Nash type way...is amazing.  Left me totally confused but intrigued.....and slightly turned on.  If you're male, I would so leave my husband for you.
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 novaruby26 Last edit in 2016-7-2 06:11:40

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novaruby26
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Post time 2016-7-2 06:13:17 | Show all posts
bump bump
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 novaruby26 Last edit in 2016-7-2 06:13:17

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argo nias
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Post time 2016-7-2 06:40:28 | Show all posts
Hah, dandy dont leave her hanging, shes waiting for a reply

Good test data by the way.
And to syameimaru, dont know how it is for you, but im lvl 93, 18 mio br, yet i still have a massive lack of holy crystals to the point that i still run around with pretty old angels.
I bet many are in those shoes, especially those who dont bother with team arena.
And tell you what? Those angel tears you also state as worthless, i could need them to upgrade many many angels once i have enough of the so worthless angel crystals. And if not, i use them in homestead instead of more valueable resources to me, like runestones, blessstones etc

Dont deem something worthless just because it might be for you..
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  • I didn't say those items were worthless but that the amounts were.
    With or without manipulation, the amounts you get or would get from Loop Quests end cards are ridiculously small.

    As for Holy Crystals I don't think I ever ran short of them after the first month of playing, on my 2-3 accounts. The rare times I need to restock there's always Arena or Tarot.

    As for Angel Tears you get more from daily free atts than from Loop Quests.


    The whole point of the discussion is that you only notice the randomness on end cards is skewed if you do dungeons manually. From what I've seen the results seem better when blitzing, and everyone uses blitz anyway.
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    2016-7-2 10:59  Reply

 argo nias Last edit in 2016-7-2 06:40:28

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erolthegreat
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Post time 2016-7-2 08:27:08 | Show all posts
This dude deserves an award
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 erolthegreat Last edit in 2016-7-2 08:27:08

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Erol The Great Ultron 1002.
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viiii
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Post time 2016-7-2 08:47:31 | Show all posts
Yes it is manipulated. It should be "normally" when 4 items stand parallel equally, we would  think the chance to grab one of the items are equal, but its wont work on this game system. The display of that 4 items stand equally is the manipulation itself, the real hidden system I supposed to think is the chance of lower gold rewards come out is much higher then the  large gold so does the crystal.
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  • We're not even saying the chances are not equal, we're saying at some point in the day you can do 10 or 20 quests and you will always find a gold card no matter where you click, because the card contents are only chosen at the moment you click. And the Angel Tear for example will ALWAYS be the next card on the left. All the time.
    And the reason for this seems to be because you can only win a limited number of Angel Tears and Holy Crystals each day when doing dungeons manually. When you got there you just get gold in the next attempts.
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    2016-7-2 10:43  Reply
  • its all your presumptions, as I do. Nothing exactly revealed
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    2016-7-2 14:44  Reply
  • The Tears can't be to the left if the first card is chosen and my study showed them to be to the right just as much as to the left.  In fact, the stats showed it appearing most often in a specific position...that is...until you clicked on that position and then it would appear elsewhere.
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    2016-7-2 16:22  Reply
  • @viiii: how you can call a pattern presumptions is beyond me.

    @dandyman: I said "for example", I don't remember what the prize order was, just that it stayed the same no matter what card you clicked. By your notation if the order was L S T C and you prize was S the results would look like this:
    x = click:
    [x] [ ] [ ] [ ] → S T C L
    [ ] [x] [ ] [ ] → L S T C
    [ ] [ ] [x] [ ] → C L S T
    [ ] [ ] [ ] [x] → T C L S
    We're saying the same thing.
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    2016-7-3 04:23  Reply
  • Or any combination where the S, in your example, is in that position.  For example, the first iteration you showed could have been S L T C, or S L C T, or S C L T.  The combination, S C T L, never shows up.

    The frequency distribution of the combinations showed that L T C S was the most frequent at 23.98% of the time.  Again, though, the mouse click choices influence this frequency greatly as was noted, yet, I'm confident that I varied the choices enough to get a legitimate and valid sampling for the frequency.
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    2016-7-3 09:25  Reply

 viiii Last edit in 2016-7-2 08:47:31

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 Author| Post time 2016-7-2 10:31:26 | Show all posts
Edited by dandyman@cableone.net at 2016-7-1 20:36

To novaruby...yes, I am male and have always had an eye for sequences and patterns.  I somewhat eluded to my penchant for curiosity when there seemed to be a definitive lack of chance to get something other than the low valued items.  And...spreadsheets are wonderful for recording raw data, then performing calculations on the results, as well as filtering counts.

To viiii...the "hit" rate for the Small Gold was the greatest, yes.  It was interesting to watch it follow the mouse clicks across different positional cards.  There were even sequences where the same combination repeated not once, not twice, but innumerable times without variance.  It would vary every once in a while, however, like I stated, once I moved off the position that I was testing to see if the combinations were random, the combination did change to where the crystal was in another place than the selected card.  Same was true for the Tears.
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 dandyman Last edit in 2016-7-2 10:31:26

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king_of_kings
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Post time 2016-7-2 10:48:29 | Show all posts
i have no words for this guy. *FacePlam*
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  • lol, i was thinking along the same lines...no facepalm cause thats not quite right.  But total shock.  I will never be this smart nor  met anyone who speaks as he does while explaining some complicated math he did randomly.  I dont even know him and im proud of him.
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    2016-7-2 11:42  Reply
  • You make it sound a lot more complicated than he actually did.
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    2016-7-2 11:55  Reply

 king_of_kings Last edit in 2016-7-2 10:48:29

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syameimaru
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Post time 2016-7-2 11:03:24 | Show all posts
After reading I find it hard to believe that you actually did 1,500 quests manually even with an auto clicker or why you thought you needed this many. Oh well.
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  • I really wasn't keeping count of the number, however, I did want to do a large sampling to make sure the stats were valid.  Not only did the daily stats coincide with the overall (they were recorded separately, then merged into the overall later), but they even were within a few percentage points from day to day.
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    2016-7-2 12:41  Reply
  • My point is 1500 manual quests takes something like 10-15 hours over 3 weeks assuming you devote your stamina entirely to that. It doesn't seem very sane.
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    2016-7-2 13:26  Reply
  • Perhaps not sane, yet, it only took a couple of seconds of data entry for each loop.  Not only that, it was the only way to get to the behavioral aspects of the cards and to get legitimate data which was the whole intent of the exercise.  Besides, it gave me an opportunity to shake off the rust of my spreadsheet skills which, at one time, were very proficient.
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    2016-7-2 15:28  Reply

 syameimaru Last edit in 2016-7-2 11:03:24

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