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Samele

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mrwelns
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Post time 2015-5-22 17:14:21 | Show all posts |Read mode
Samele Reply:9| View:869

        Ok something isn\'t right here... 4/4 times when i have expansion at first stage I got this fortune bag.

        Statistically the chances of that happening should be under 5% (several occasions in a row where the probability of picking fortune bag once is 33,33%. According to statistics the chance to get that result 4 times in a row are 0.33*0,33*0.33*0.33..=1% Correct me if i\'m wrong, but still that probability is definitely under 5% if it isn\'t somehow modified which would be really unfair.
       
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 mrwelns Last edit in 2015-5-22 17:14:21

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flandre
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Post time 2015-5-22 18:20:54 | Show all posts

Samele

        Dear player... To say it as simple as possible... Its just that rng doesnt like you for now.
        As it doesnt like me either ;
        (3 times in row 1st stage fortune bag and 2nd stage ghoul saying hello !)
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 flandre Last edit in 2015-5-22 18:20:54

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 Author| Post time 2015-5-22 19:00:13 | Show all posts

Samele

Reply 1# flandre
        [color
        Dear player. I know ;Got to stage 8 once, then 3 times in row fail at 2nd, rng can be harsh.
       

        Samele and Maze hate me for now, but Stallion dash gives over 500pts with 15 moves 3 days in a row. Luck is unpredictable.
       

       

        Just wanted to know what\'s the longest streak of having expansion at 1st stage and getting fortune bag;
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 mrwelns Last edit in 2015-5-22 19:00:13

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flamingcloud
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Post time 2015-5-22 19:24:24 | Show all posts

Samele

        I am 99% sure Samele is not truly random. Wish I had been recording my results and did a test vs the expected value of where one should expect to lose on average.

        Seems to be random in the same way as Lucky Strike is, haha...
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 flamingcloud Last edit in 2015-5-22 19:24:24

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Post time 2015-5-22 19:40:24 | Show all posts

Samele


Reply 3# flamingcloud

        Absolutely right it\'s not random. I die on stage 3 about 19 out of 20 times, which really shouldn\'t happen that often if statistics are to be trusted with only 2 goddamn guards lol.
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 joriannn Last edit in 2015-5-22 19:40:24

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Post time 2015-5-22 19:56:08 | Show all posts

Samele

        Exactly I die on 2 or 3 like 85% of the time..

        The odds of getting to stage;____ assuming truly random
        1: 100%
        2: 100% (Stage 1 has no baddies)
        3: 88.888% (Stage 2 has 1 baddy, so 1/9 fail rate.. etc)
        4: 69.1358%
        5: 46.0905%
        6: 25.60585%
        7:; 11.380%
        8: 3.793%
        9: 0.84299%
        10: 0.093666% (ie you win the whole thing with 1 in 1067.6 odds with no gold)

        This means the two most common places to lose on should be stage 4 & 5 with each being over 20% chance...; Also a 46% chance of getting to stage 5..

        They should just lower the prizes in stages 4-6 and make it actually random if they feel it would be too rewarding if fair.... Also wish it said how many points each stage is worth.
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 flamingcloud Last edit in 2015-5-22 19:56:08

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Post time 2015-5-22 20:00:10 | Show all posts

Samele

Apparently got Wing ( REd one ) and a Accessories.;
without using GOLD ( coz i dont have any )
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 xclusive Last edit in 2015-5-22 20:00:10

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 Author| Post time 2015-5-22 21:11:42 | Show all posts

Samele

        Yea somehow it feels like those bags are only visual, completely different rng under the whole thing.
       

        Same with Sahlonax from SA, anyone ever got a Sahlonax shard without using gold?
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 mrwelns Last edit in 2015-5-22 21:11:42

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Post time 2015-5-22 23:31:11 | Show all posts

Samele

        days pass by and i dont see any msg that someone would have made it to 5th stage ( on a decently active server)..;
        ; i almost always get the chest at first try except when expension ticket lol its pathetic how they try to sell us donuts that this is a randome function !! i think last 6-7 trys i never made it further then 3rd stage;
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 berdy010 Last edit in 2015-5-22 23:31:11

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